To summarize the article: based on the latest US job report, 1.9 million net new jobs were added over the past 15 months from Jan/10 to Mar/11. However the 35-44 and 45-54 age groups have lost jobs, while all others gained about 2.4 million jobs. These are facts. The rest of the article goes on to speculate on why this might be occurring, and what are the implications for the US economy.
I'm in my late 40s, so this news was unwelcome. Fortunately as a small business owner I created my own job along with a few more so I didn't take the news too personally...
Mr. Newman's speculation is quite reasonable. But ... can the "facts" be taken at face value?
These facts are ignoring the change in size of the age groups. I'm no demographer, but I am aware of the Baby Boom. As a proxy for change in age group size, here are the US Birth rates that would impact the age groups. Over the 15 month period, and ignoring immigration, deaths, etc., the 35-44 age group has shrunk by about 800K (645K*1.25) and the 45-54 age group by 430K (344K*1.25). Admittedly rough calculations ...
However, this implies that the 35-44 age group has shrunk faster than their job pool (-800K to -143K). It remains a fact that this group has fewer jobs than 15 month earlier. But, since the number of people in the group is notably lower, it's also a fact that a higher percentage of people in this group now have jobs. So I don't think it's reasonable to conclude that this group has any kind of hiring issue. For the 45-54 age group the numbers are close (-430K to -454K). Again, on this basis not likely a hiring issue.
Finally, I recognize that this post is not doing a lot better than the original publication ... I'm not accurately comparing the CHANGE IN SIZE of each age group with CHANGE IN NUMBER of jobs before I draw a conclusion. That's what is needed. My excuse is that I was up early today, so I took 30 extra minutes to write this post. I'm respectfully hoping for larger time investment and for better quality from the US News and World Report.
All comments welcomed. Marv
PS. For ease of reference, I've attached the relevant statistical breakdown from the article:
| Age group | Job gains last 15 months | Unemployment rate |
|---|---|---|
| All adults 16 and over | 1.9 million | 8.8% |
| 16 – 24 | 490,000 | 17.6% |
| 25 – 34 | 709,000 | 9.1% |
| 35 – 44 | -143,000 | 7.2% |
| 45 – 54 | -454,000 | 7.1% |
| 55 and over | 1.3 million | 3.1% |
(Note: The broken-down job numbers don't completely add up to the total due to seasonal adjustments and other factors.)
PPS. Yes, I could probably find a better proxy than the US Birth rate numbers with some more research ... feel free to help me out ...
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